Showing posts with label tropical storms. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tropical storms. Show all posts

Sunday, September 09, 2018

Tropical storm Isaac

Isaac again


Last update 13 sept 2018 11.00: At 11.00 the center of Isaac was located at 14.9N 61.8W which is between Dominica and Martinique. Isaac is now a weak tropical storm with winds of 45 knots. However, the rain bands behind it will affect the island chain throughout the day today, mostly right behind and to the North of the storm, but even the Windward Islands could get some.
In Bequia the wind has already shifted to a Southerly direction and it is partly sunny.

Update 12 sept 2018 11.15: Isaac has weakened a little more, and is now at 15N 54.7W.  A hurricane hunter plane has just been investigating the storm and found winds of 50 knots. So Isaac is now expected to pass through the island chain as a "normal" tropical storm. This will still mean significant amounts of rain at the former center of the storm, and even here in the Grenadines we might get some rain as Isaac is falling apart.

Update 11 sept 2018 12.00: Isaac is now a strong tropical storm at 14.6N 49.7W. There still is a high level of uncertainty as to Isaac's intensity when it passes through the island chain. This is why there is a hurricane watch for Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe.

Update 10 sept 2018: Surprisingly Isaac did not strengthen and is still a minor tiny hurricane. As of 5 pm he was located at 14.4N 45W. To give you an idea about how tiny he is: hurricane force winds of 64 knots or greater extend only 10 miles from the North of the center. Tropical storm force winds of 34 knots or greater only have a maximum radius of 40 nautical miles.

Update 10 sept 2018: As expected Isaac has strengthened into a minor hurricane and is continuing on its westward track. Isaac is a tiny hurricane which means that fluctuations in strength can be rapid and significant. For that reason there is a high level of uncertainty in the forecasts as to at which intensity it will pass through the island chain. My favorite computer model has it as a minor storm, but the National Hurricane center has it as a minor hurricane.
Consensus is very general now that it will pass somewhere North of Martinique, with Antigua getting the strongest winds..
For us here in Bequia that will most probably mean no wind at all on Wednesday before Isaac, and a nice breeze after he has passed through the island chain.


9-9-2018
Track of Isaac 2012
In 2012 I wrote a post about a storm named Isaac that in a way affected Bequia. At this moment there is a next storm named Isaac to our East.

This Isaac, since coming off the coast off Africa as a tropical wave, then depression #9 is currently intensifying and may even become a hurricane soon.
The forecast track of Isaac 9-9-2018

This Isaac is so far following a very similar track as his namesake in 2012, and is forecast to pass through the island chain next week.

Where and at what intensity?
The official forecast has it passing through a minor hurricane/strong storm, the numerous "amateur" marine forecasters I follow and which are usually right have it passing through  as a minor storm/depression.

I'll keep updating this post as new information becomes available, stay tuned.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Hurricane Isaac and more

Good afternoon,

Being a superstitious sailor in the Grenadines I was reluctant to post anything on Isaac so far.
He has been a bit of a troublesome storm to predict (what's in a name, right?) and still is.
Here in the Grenadines we had LOADS of rain and some very gusty winds from all directions.
To my knowledge only a few boats hit each other caused by shifting winds, some dragged anchor, but the only very unfortunate thing that happened was the ship that managed to get himself stranded east, yes east, of West Cay.
Probably due to poor visibility captain did not interpret the light on West Cay correctly.


Thanks to Christian Schrijver, who took this picture, the crew is safe.
He caught the Mayday and went out in his little dinghy to see if he could help.

The weather was awful, you are one heroic good sailor.



What is next for Isaac? As we speak, Isaac is AGAIN trying to make up his mind where he wants to form a center, so it is a wait and see now.


Meanwhile, news and weather forecasts and speculations will be coming in on Isaac, especially since he still has a possibility to hit Tampa where a pretty major political even is scheduled to take place.
However, we are now looking at the Africa computer models, they are in quite good agreement that the next storm will form off Africa next week. So far all storms have followed more or less the same track, Kirk next?

All the best, Maria

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Ernesto first storm for the Grenadines?

Hello everyone,

And it is official!!! Ernesto is here.
At this moment there is a high chance, 70% that a low pressure area in the Atlantic will become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours and that it will be very close to us. As of this writing the system is at 12N 48W, and the forward track is slightly WNW.
2 of the reliable computer models have it tracking directly over Bequia. The system will be named Ernesto if further strengthening into a tropical storm.
The government has issued a press release, part of it here (it is a holiday today)
"The St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Office will continue to monitor the development of this system and will be issuing further statements on its progress over the next few days."

 
Interesting tidbit: in 2006 tropical storm/hurricane Ernesto was named just a few miles west of Mayreau, it became the most costly tropical storm/hurricane of that year, estimated $500 million in damage and 11 deaths.
See track from Wikipedia archives to the left.
Lets hope history does not repeat itself.

Be careful everybody, these computers are good but they don't know everything, this is still the weather!



I include a link here that gives you the current situation, we are after all in 2012:

All the best, Maria

PS. Whoops, at 17.00 1st August, minutes after I wrote the above, it is now Tropical depression number 5 located at 12.2N 49W. At this moment we are under a tropical storm watch.