Monday, September 02, 2019

Dorian help for the Bahamas


Since Dorian passed through our vicinity just North of Bequia as a storm, it has developed into a major hurricane, possibly the most powerful one yet for the Atlantic.

He is currently devastating part of the Bahamas, and barely moving away. Some footage from the stricken areas have been posted online with the request to share, so I include that below to give you an impression.

As all island nations are in this together there is a very practical way to help.
In the same way Dominica, after hurricane Maria, received aid from all sorts of vessels  transporting food, water, building materials, and other essentials the International Rescue Group  (IRG) in partnership with the Seven Seas cruising association's Yacht relief alliance  has opened registration for all vessels that can carry supplies,
You can Register HERE
And if you have supplies or donations and don't know how to ship them  you can notify them HERE and they will match a vessel to your shipment if available.

Some footage of the disaster:





Monday, August 19, 2019

The peak of the hurricane season is about to begin/ Dorian


Final Update 27 August: The center of Dorian passed over the middle of St Lucia causing it to weaken and now trying to reform just West of Martinique. In Bequia there was a slight wind from the West this morning, shifting South now. We had some rain, nothing major.
It is still perplexing to me why the "official" forecast issued by the hurricane center kept insisting on hurricane strength winds even after a hurricane hunter plane failed to find more than 45 knots.
The government has reacted very appropriately by having ordered a shut down of non essential businesses yesterday and today to give everybody a chance to prepare.

Bequia Harbour looking towards Lower Bay at 3 pm 26th August
Update 26 August: Dorian is approaching Barbados, with the center expected to pass this evening.
The "new" GFS computer model still has Dorian rapidly diminishing in strength after it passes Barbados, the official forecast still has it passing the island chain as a strong tropical storm with 50 knots of wind. Again, it will be interesting to see who is right! If I still had a boat I would be prepared for strong storm force winds though...
The visible satellite picture looks pretty ominous.
BUT: Some observations just looking out the window: yesterday was beautiful weather, and very hazy, meaning there was a lot of dust (dry air). That is not favorable for development, especially for a small storm like this. In fact, the weather is still beautiful and there is a nice breeze, no quiet before the storm at all.
Most yachts moved to the North side of Admirality Bay
In conclusion, actual observations from Barbados will tell us a lot more about the intensity of Dorian.
Stay safe, and I will update later today.
Position at 11 am was 12.3N 57.7 W moving at 285 degrees.



Update 25 August: Yesterday afternoon the system was upgraded to tropical storm status, with the name Dorian. The hurricane center had a very alarming forecast, giving it hurricane strength for when it should pass through the island chain. The computer models were and are still only forecasting minor storm/depression status.
It will be interesting to see who is right.
Anyway, the met office of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has issued a tropical storm watch.
Position at 2 pm was 11.3N 53.4W. Moving at 280 degrees.

Update 24 August: The system to our East has become a little better organized and is now tropical depression #5. Forecast models for the strength when it passes through the island chain vary greatly still, from a strong storm to a tropical wave.
As you see on the picture below, it is a well defined area of cloudiness, so rain is very possible.
Position at 11 am was 10.4N, 47.9W. Movement is slightly North of due west.

Update 23 August: It was not a false alarm after all, a low has formed at around 45 West, and the hurricane center currently gives it a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours, the gfs computer models have it passing over the island chain as a very strong storm.
If that happens it would be named Dorian or Erin.
Here s the satellite picture with the forecast added:





Update 22 August: false alarm, it will be just a tropical wave as it passes through the island chain.

19 August :We are already in the second half of August and nothing of note has happened in the Grenadines weather wise yet. Which is not a reason to get complacent, computer models suggest a depression or minor storm might be passing right over Bequia next week.

That would mean sustained 28+ knots gusty winds and thunderstorms around the 26th of August.
The hurricane center is mentioning nothing yet, so you heard it here first!

I will keep you updated, official forecasts will probably start in a few days.

For now we have gorgeous weather!