Thursday, July 23, 2020

Gonzalo St, Vincent and the Grenadines

Tropical storm Gonzalo is approaching the island chain

Question is: where will it pass through the island chain? The model I have found to be most reliable has it passing very near to Bequia.
However, at the moment the only input for this model seems to be satellite imagery and surface analysis, none of the Atlantic buoys have transmitted any data recently. This might be lack of maintenance due to the corona virus lockdowns.
Gonzalo is a very small system,which makes it hard to predict the future track. The stronger it gets, the more Northerly the track can be.

This is the official press release:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).

A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Covid-19 second wave in St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Importing new cases

Right after American Airlines resumed flights to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, as well as airports in other islands reopening their borders, there have bee new imported cases of Covid 19.
It was preferred that passengers had themselves tested and only flew if they tested negative, but not everybody adhered to that recommendation. Hence there were a total of 21 positive cases determined after testing in St. Vincent. 6 of these have now recovered, must be the climate, bringing the total active cases to 15.
It is now mandatory for persons wishing to travel from the USA to St. Vincent that they are tested negative for Covid 19 72 hours or less prior to their flight.

Sunday, May 03, 2020

Current Covid 19 status in St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Covid 19 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines: stage 2

Update 3rd May: A 17th person has tested positive, and one person confirmed recovered, bringing the total number of active cases to 8. Number 17 is part of the same cluster.
Update 29th April: A 16th person has tested positive, this one too is closely associated with the last cluster. Contact tracing has been done I suppose, the number of persons in quarantine has increased to 100.

Very quiet front street Port Elizabeth
Update 26th April
A 15th person has been tested positive, this one too is closely associated with case 13 and 14 who got it from an imported case.
 3 more persons have recovered as confirmed by 2 negative tests, bringing the total number of active cases to 7.
Update 23rd April
A 14th case has been confirmed, this one "closely associated" with case 13. At least 5 other persons are  closely associated with this last case, extensive contact tracing is being done to determine if there is now community spreading of the virus.
Several tests have been done for medical clearance of patients, two more are recovered. The  total recovered is now 5, active cases 9.
Update April 21st
This last person that tested positive has no recent travel history. The ministry of health now calls this a local transmission, meaning the person has been in direct contact with a patient with a travel history. As per the CDC: This is the stage of local transmission - when people who have brought the virus into the country transmit it to people they come in contact with, usually friends and family. At this stage, it is easy to trace spread and quarantine people.
This is different from community spread, where none of the infected patients have been in contact with an infected person that has a travel history. That would be stage 3.
April 21st
Today one more person has tested positive for the novel corona virus bringing the total of cases to 13. 2 of the active cases have been tested twice, result negative, and hence received medical clearance.
This brings the total active cases to 10.
It is unclear if this new positive is caused by local transmission or concerns a person who has travelled.