The peak of the hurricane season is about to begin/ Dorian

Final Update 27 August: The center of Dorian passed over the middle of St Lucia causing it to weaken and now trying to reform just West of Martinique. In Bequia there was a slight wind from the West this morning, shifting South now. We had some rain, nothing major.
It is still perplexing to me why the "official" forecast issued by the hurricane center kept insisting on hurricane strength winds even after a hurricane hunter plane failed to find more than 45 knots.
The government has reacted very appropriately by having ordered a shut down of non essential businesses yesterday and today to give everybody a chance to prepare.

Bequia Harbour looking towards Lower Bay at 3 pm 26th August

Update 26 August: Dorian is approaching Barbados, with the center expected to pass this evening.
The "new" GFS computer model still has Dorian rapidly diminishing in strength after it passes Barbados, the official forecast still has it passing the island chain as a strong tropical storm with 50 knots of wind. Again, it will be interesting to see who is right! If I still had a boat I would be prepared for strong storm force winds though...
The visible satellite picture looks pretty ominous.
BUT: Some observations just looking out the window: yesterday was beautiful weather, and very hazy, meaning there was a lot of dust (dry air). That is not favorable for development, especially for a small storm like this. In fact, the weather is still beautiful and there is a nice breeze, no quiet before the storm at all.

Most yachts moved to the North side of Admirality Bay

In conclusion, actual observations from Barbados will tell us a lot more about the intensity of Dorian.
Stay safe, and I will update later today.
Position at 11 am was 12.3N 57.7 W moving at 285 degrees.



Update 25 August: Yesterday afternoon the system was upgraded to tropical storm status, with the name Dorian. The hurricane center had a very alarming forecast, giving it hurricane strength for when it should pass through the island chain. The computer models were and are still only forecasting minor storm/depression status.
It will be interesting to see who is right.
Anyway, the met office of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has issued a tropical storm watch.
Position at 2 pm was 11.3N 53.4W. Moving at 280 degrees.

Update 24 August: The system to our East has become a little better organized and is now tropical depression #5. Forecast models for the strength when it passes through the island chain vary greatly still, from a strong storm to a tropical wave.
As you see on the picture below, it is a well defined area of cloudiness, so rain is very possible.
Position at 11 am was 10.4N, 47.9W. Movement is slightly North of due west.

Update 23 August: It was not a false alarm after all, a low has formed at around 45 West, and the hurricane center currently gives it a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours, the gfs computer models have it passing over the island chain as a very strong storm.
If that happens it would be named Dorian or Erin.
Here s the satellite picture with the forecast added:

Update 22 August: false alarm, it will be just a tropical wave as it passes through the island chain.

19 August :We are already in the second half of August and nothing of note has happened in the Grenadines weather wise yet. Which is not a reason to get complacent, computer models suggest a depression or minor storm might be passing right over Bequia next week.

That would mean sustained 28+ knots gusty winds and thunderstorms around the 26th of August.
The hurricane center is mentioning nothing yet, so you heard it here first!

I will keep you updated, official forecasts will probably start in a few days.

For now we have gorgeous weather!



 

 

First potential "Cabo Verde" storm 96L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Last update 4th August: The computer model was right. Looking out the window:  It is going to rain today. I hear thunder already.


Update 3rd August: Chance of formation of a tropical storm is even less now, and the computer model still does not forecast any significant development. However, if you just look at the satellite image below you notice this strong tropical wave about 600 miles to our East (50 degrees West longitude) so expect heavy rain and gusty winds starting Sunday afternoon.

 Update 2nd August: As you see the chances of formation of a tropical storm have been reduced by the hurricane center, the computer models still don't forecast any development. Regardless, it could pass the island chain as a strong tropical wave, bringing rain and gusty winds.

Happy Emancipation day!

The first disturbance for the 2019 hurricane season has been designated 96L by the National hurricane center. They give it a 70% chance to develop into a depression or storm in the next 5 days.
However, there is quite a discrepancy between their forecast and the normally very reliable 7 day GFS computer model forecast.
The GFS had it developing yesterday, but dissipating today by the time it would be approaching the island chain.
I have never seen such a difference in official guidance and the computer model.
So I think it would be reasonable to assume at least a depression could develop next week which will pass through the island chain North of Bequia.
We will keep you updated. (Image above updates automatically)