First potential "Cabo Verde" storm 96L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Last update 4th August: The computer model was right. Looking out the window:  It is going to rain today. I hear thunder already.


Update 3rd August: Chance of formation of a tropical storm is even less now, and the computer model still does not forecast any significant development. However, if you just look at the satellite image below you notice this strong tropical wave about 600 miles to our East (50 degrees West longitude) so expect heavy rain and gusty winds starting Sunday afternoon.

 Update 2nd August: As you see the chances of formation of a tropical storm have been reduced by the hurricane center, the computer models still don't forecast any development. Regardless, it could pass the island chain as a strong tropical wave, bringing rain and gusty winds.

Happy Emancipation day!

The first disturbance for the 2019 hurricane season has been designated 96L by the National hurricane center. They give it a 70% chance to develop into a depression or storm in the next 5 days.
However, there is quite a discrepancy between their forecast and the normally very reliable 7 day GFS computer model forecast.
The GFS had it developing yesterday, but dissipating today by the time it would be approaching the island chain.
I have never seen such a difference in official guidance and the computer model.
So I think it would be reasonable to assume at least a depression could develop next week which will pass through the island chain North of Bequia.
We will keep you updated. (Image above updates automatically)