Thursday, July 03, 2008

For me the hurricane season has now started with record breaking tropical storm Bertha.
She is the first storm ever to form this far east in the Atlantic this early in the season.
Computer models all predict that she will curve to the North-Northwest and not approach the islands at all, unless she weakens considerably.

I have this very tentative theory, maybe somebody could help out with official statistics? It is very narrowly focused on the east Caribbean and very much sailor oriented:

I noticed that the first strong tropical waves or even depressions passing through the East Caribbean kind of leave a trail, making it easier for the next one to follow the same road.

This was especially significant in 2004, when everybody had Earl and Ivan going North, however, they followed an almost identical track over Grenada and Carriacou, way south of the forecast.
Looking at my logbooks we also had very stong tropical waves passing through...
Same happened in 2005 with Emily and Dennis.

Lets go see what happened end of this season, what I have observed till now is that the major convection of strong tropical waves so far has passed over the St. Lucia-Guadeloupe area, meaning that according to my theory we will not experience any serious named storms as direct hits here in the Grenadines.
At the moment we have invest 93L, nothing really happened here.
Knock wood.

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