Gonzalo St, Vincent and the Grenadines

Tropical storm Gonzalo is approaching the island chain

Question is: where will it pass through the island chain? The model I have found to be most reliable has it passing very near to Bequia.

However, at the moment the only input for this model seems to be satellite imagery and surface analysis, none of the Atlantic buoys have transmitted any data recently. This might be lack of maintenance due to the corona virus lockdowns.

Gonzalo is a very small system,which makes it hard to predict the future track. The stronger it gets, the more Northerly the track can be.

This is the official press release:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).

A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).